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	<title>Comments on: 2008 Arctic Sea-Ice Refreeze Trend Line Dropping Below Last Year&#8217;s</title>
	<atom:link href="http://climaticidechronicles.wordpress.com/2008/12/21/2008-arctic-sea-ice-refreeze-trend-line-dropping-below-last-years/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://climaticidechronicles.wordpress.com/2008/12/21/2008-arctic-sea-ice-refreeze-trend-line-dropping-below-last-years/</link>
	<description>Social and political commentary with a special emphasis on global warming and climate change</description>
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		<title>By: W. Olson</title>
		<link>http://climaticidechronicles.wordpress.com/2008/12/21/2008-arctic-sea-ice-refreeze-trend-line-dropping-below-last-years/#comment-902</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[W. Olson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Feb 2009 22:45:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climaticidechronicles.org/?p=1416#comment-902</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dear Cari:

Please don&#039;t have children.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear Cari:</p>
<p>Please don&#8217;t have children.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: JohnnyRook</title>
		<link>http://climaticidechronicles.wordpress.com/2008/12/21/2008-arctic-sea-ice-refreeze-trend-line-dropping-below-last-years/#comment-767</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JohnnyRook]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2009 01:20:30 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[The graph reflects the data at the time that I wrote  I&#039;ll update it the next time I write about sea-ice extent.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The graph reflects the data at the time that I wrote  I&#8217;ll update it the next time I write about sea-ice extent.</p>
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		<title>By: Doug</title>
		<link>http://climaticidechronicles.wordpress.com/2008/12/21/2008-arctic-sea-ice-refreeze-trend-line-dropping-below-last-years/#comment-765</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Doug]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Jan 2009 14:23:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climaticidechronicles.org/?p=1416#comment-765</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Oops.  Better update your graph.  While &quot;the 2008-2009 line is now poised to dip below last year’s,&quot; may have been true when that graph was generated, the latest graph, http://www.nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png shows that ice extent is well above the 2006-07 average.  And, unless my eyes deceive me, the trend line is accelerating.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oops.  Better update your graph.  While &#8220;the 2008-2009 line is now poised to dip below last year’s,&#8221; may have been true when that graph was generated, the latest graph, <a href="http://www.nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png" rel="nofollow">http://www.nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png</a> shows that ice extent is well above the 2006-07 average.  And, unless my eyes deceive me, the trend line is accelerating.</p>
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		<title>By: Steven Jensen</title>
		<link>http://climaticidechronicles.wordpress.com/2008/12/21/2008-arctic-sea-ice-refreeze-trend-line-dropping-below-last-years/#comment-756</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steven Jensen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Jan 2009 06:32:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climaticidechronicles.org/?p=1416#comment-756</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hi Johnny.  Sorry, I should have posted the link.  I&#039;ll do that next time.  This is just a data-point, but global sea-ice is a good data-point, I think.  We could just look at the South Pole Ice Extent, but as you say, that leaves out the North Pole and wouldn&#039;t be fair because the South Pole ice has been growing like crazy.  So I&#039;m happy with the global data point.  And it says we&#039;re back to a 1979 level - which would have been unfathomable as little as 2 years ago!  As for what the &quot;models predict&quot;, well - they were all wrong about 2008 and I&#039;m sure they&#039;re wrong about 2009 as well.  They&#039;re missing important variables, I think.  I used to do complex simulations, so I know all about how models can be wrong based on faulty input data.  That being said, I&#039;m perfectly willing to accept Global Warming.  In fact, I HAVE accepted it.  Until just recently.  When new data suggested some variables seem to be missing from the equation.  Like Sun Spots and Solar Radiation.  So I&#039;m going to keep an open mind and watch the weather temps in 2009.  I expect that 2009 will either be colder or warmer than 2008.  I&#039;m predicting that 2009 is cooler than 2008.  Pretty easy to predict so far.  Also, I&#039;ll be the first to &quot;eat crow&quot; if 2009 is not cooler than 2008, and sea-ice extent in early 2010 is not greater than it is today.  I&#039;m just curious about what it would take to convince YOU that things are starting to cool?  Would 2009 being cooler than 2008 be enough - putting it cooler than 1990 or so?  Or will it take 2010 being cooler than 1979?  Where&#039;s the line in the sand where you start to consider that solar radiation may be the biggest contributor to Global temperatures?  Just consider for a moment that we ARE in a cooling trend now.  What data would be stacking up?  Would it be what we are seeing now, with lower avg world-wide temps, terrible cold-fronts not seen in decades, no sun-spots, and increasing sea-ice?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Johnny.  Sorry, I should have posted the link.  I&#8217;ll do that next time.  This is just a data-point, but global sea-ice is a good data-point, I think.  We could just look at the South Pole Ice Extent, but as you say, that leaves out the North Pole and wouldn&#8217;t be fair because the South Pole ice has been growing like crazy.  So I&#8217;m happy with the global data point.  And it says we&#8217;re back to a 1979 level &#8211; which would have been unfathomable as little as 2 years ago!  As for what the &#8220;models predict&#8221;, well &#8211; they were all wrong about 2008 and I&#8217;m sure they&#8217;re wrong about 2009 as well.  They&#8217;re missing important variables, I think.  I used to do complex simulations, so I know all about how models can be wrong based on faulty input data.  That being said, I&#8217;m perfectly willing to accept Global Warming.  In fact, I HAVE accepted it.  Until just recently.  When new data suggested some variables seem to be missing from the equation.  Like Sun Spots and Solar Radiation.  So I&#8217;m going to keep an open mind and watch the weather temps in 2009.  I expect that 2009 will either be colder or warmer than 2008.  I&#8217;m predicting that 2009 is cooler than 2008.  Pretty easy to predict so far.  Also, I&#8217;ll be the first to &#8220;eat crow&#8221; if 2009 is not cooler than 2008, and sea-ice extent in early 2010 is not greater than it is today.  I&#8217;m just curious about what it would take to convince YOU that things are starting to cool?  Would 2009 being cooler than 2008 be enough &#8211; putting it cooler than 1990 or so?  Or will it take 2010 being cooler than 1979?  Where&#8217;s the line in the sand where you start to consider that solar radiation may be the biggest contributor to Global temperatures?  Just consider for a moment that we ARE in a cooling trend now.  What data would be stacking up?  Would it be what we are seeing now, with lower avg world-wide temps, terrible cold-fronts not seen in decades, no sun-spots, and increasing sea-ice?</p>
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		<title>By: JohnnyRook</title>
		<link>http://climaticidechronicles.wordpress.com/2008/12/21/2008-arctic-sea-ice-refreeze-trend-line-dropping-below-last-years/#comment-755</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JohnnyRook]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Jan 2009 05:20:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climaticidechronicles.org/?p=1416#comment-755</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#039;s pretty clear, Steven, why you don&#039;t include links in your posts.

See the University of Illinois’s Arctic Climate Research Center&#039;s response to your disinformation campaign.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/global.sea.ice.area.pdf]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s pretty clear, Steven, why you don&#8217;t include links in your posts.</p>
<p>See the University of Illinois’s Arctic Climate Research Center&#8217;s response to your disinformation campaign.</p>
<p><a href="http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/global.sea.ice.area.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/global.sea.ice.area.pdf</a></p>
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		<title>By: Steven Jensen</title>
		<link>http://climaticidechronicles.wordpress.com/2008/12/21/2008-arctic-sea-ice-refreeze-trend-line-dropping-below-last-years/#comment-754</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steven Jensen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2009 21:53:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climaticidechronicles.org/?p=1416#comment-754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Sea Ice Ends 2008 at 1979 levels...

The data is being reported by the University of Illinois&#039;s Arctic Climate Research Center, and is derived from satellite observations of the Northern and Southern hemisphere polar regions.

Each year, millions of square kilometers of sea ice melt and refreeze. However, the mean ice anomaly -- defined as the seasonally-adjusted difference between the current value and the average from 1979-2000, varies much more slowly. That anomaly now stands at just under zero, a value identical to one recorded at the end of 1979, the year satellite record-keeping began.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sea Ice Ends 2008 at 1979 levels&#8230;</p>
<p>The data is being reported by the University of Illinois&#8217;s Arctic Climate Research Center, and is derived from satellite observations of the Northern and Southern hemisphere polar regions.</p>
<p>Each year, millions of square kilometers of sea ice melt and refreeze. However, the mean ice anomaly &#8212; defined as the seasonally-adjusted difference between the current value and the average from 1979-2000, varies much more slowly. That anomaly now stands at just under zero, a value identical to one recorded at the end of 1979, the year satellite record-keeping began.</p>
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		<title>By: JohnnyRook</title>
		<link>http://climaticidechronicles.wordpress.com/2008/12/21/2008-arctic-sea-ice-refreeze-trend-line-dropping-below-last-years/#comment-717</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JohnnyRook]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 23:00:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climaticidechronicles.org/?p=1416#comment-717</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[2008 was the 10th warmest year on record. &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24813289-11949,00.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; In Australia it was the 15th.&lt;/a&gt;  

From the Met Office: &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20081216.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;2008 global temperature&lt;/a&gt;

From the World Meteorological Organization:  &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_835_en.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;2008 AMONG THE TEN WARMEST YEARS; MARKED BY WEATHER EXTREMES AND SECOND-LOWEST LEVEL OF ARCTIC ICE COVER &lt;/a&gt;

Don&#039;t you denialist folks ever look at science web sites (as opposed to political ones)?

Who are the &quot;people&quot; saying that 2009 will be the warmest year ever?  Do you have a credible source that you can link to? Who said that 2008 was a candidate for warmest year ever? &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080116114150.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt; Jim Hansen specifically said in 2007, which was the 2nd warmest year on record, that we should not expect 2008 to be an exceptionally warm year&lt;/a&gt;.

You&#039;re wasting my time with this crap. Or is that the point?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>2008 was the 10th warmest year on record. <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24813289-11949,00.html" rel="nofollow"> In Australia it was the 15th.</a>  </p>
<p>From the Met Office: <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20081216.html" rel="nofollow">2008 global temperature</a></p>
<p>From the World Meteorological Organization:  <a href="http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_835_en.html" rel="nofollow">2008 AMONG THE TEN WARMEST YEARS; MARKED BY WEATHER EXTREMES AND SECOND-LOWEST LEVEL OF ARCTIC ICE COVER </a></p>
<p>Don&#8217;t you denialist folks ever look at science web sites (as opposed to political ones)?</p>
<p>Who are the &#8220;people&#8221; saying that 2009 will be the warmest year ever?  Do you have a credible source that you can link to? Who said that 2008 was a candidate for warmest year ever? <a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080116114150.htm" rel="nofollow"> Jim Hansen specifically said in 2007, which was the 2nd warmest year on record, that we should not expect 2008 to be an exceptionally warm year</a>.</p>
<p>You&#8217;re wasting my time with this crap. Or is that the point?</p>
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		<title>By: Steven Jensen</title>
		<link>http://climaticidechronicles.wordpress.com/2008/12/21/2008-arctic-sea-ice-refreeze-trend-line-dropping-below-last-years/#comment-714</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steven Jensen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 20:03:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climaticidechronicles.org/?p=1416#comment-714</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hey Johnny!  So where DID 2008 wind-up on the list of &quot;warmest years on record&quot;?  Was it somewhere around 15th?  That&#039;s quite a ways off from the &quot;record high temperature&quot; predictions everyone had.  Now, 2009 is starting out pretty cold as well.  Still people are predicting 2009 to be &quot;The warmest year ever!&quot;  I&#039;m sensing a lot of hype now in the face of contrary data.  I&#039;m just waiting for the data points to stack-up enough that people say &quot;Hmmmm...  Maybe we were wrong about the Global Warming thing...&quot;  Still, I agree that we&#039;re not there yet.  We&#039;ll have to watch how 2009 develops.  But if it tracks like 2008 did, then I&#039;m hoping that people will at least acknowledge the possibility that things may not be warming as much as we&#039;ve thought.  It&#039;s tough to back-track on a theory once you&#039;ve put so much time and energy into it, I know.  But that&#039;s the hallmark of a great scientist - the ability to take in NEW data and form an updated theory.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey Johnny!  So where DID 2008 wind-up on the list of &#8220;warmest years on record&#8221;?  Was it somewhere around 15th?  That&#8217;s quite a ways off from the &#8220;record high temperature&#8221; predictions everyone had.  Now, 2009 is starting out pretty cold as well.  Still people are predicting 2009 to be &#8220;The warmest year ever!&#8221;  I&#8217;m sensing a lot of hype now in the face of contrary data.  I&#8217;m just waiting for the data points to stack-up enough that people say &#8220;Hmmmm&#8230;  Maybe we were wrong about the Global Warming thing&#8230;&#8221;  Still, I agree that we&#8217;re not there yet.  We&#8217;ll have to watch how 2009 develops.  But if it tracks like 2008 did, then I&#8217;m hoping that people will at least acknowledge the possibility that things may not be warming as much as we&#8217;ve thought.  It&#8217;s tough to back-track on a theory once you&#8217;ve put so much time and energy into it, I know.  But that&#8217;s the hallmark of a great scientist &#8211; the ability to take in NEW data and form an updated theory.</p>
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		<title>By: JohnnyRook</title>
		<link>http://climaticidechronicles.wordpress.com/2008/12/21/2008-arctic-sea-ice-refreeze-trend-line-dropping-below-last-years/#comment-582</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JohnnyRook]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:32:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climaticidechronicles.org/?p=1416#comment-582</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Bob,

Here is what the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=7545&amp;tid=282&amp;cid=44586&amp;ct=162&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution&lt;/a&gt; has to say about whether these undersea volcanoes have any effect on sea ice melt. (You have to scroll to near the bottom of the page to find the quotation.) JR


&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Do explosive volcanic eruptions on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean contribute to the melting of the Arctic ice cap?&lt;/strong&gt;

No, not at all. The Arctic Ocean is a huge reservoir of water that can readily absorb and disperse the heat and volatile gases from the volcanic eruptions at the seafloor.

To get a sense of how readily and easily the ocean disperses heat from the Earth’s crust, look at underwater volcanoes and hydrothermal vents in other regions of the ocean. At hydrothermal vents, scientists have found mineral-rich fluids with temperatures approaching 400°C (750°F) spewing out of the Earth.  But if you measure temperatures just a few meters above or to the side of a vent, water temperatures return to just 2° to 3°C (35° to 37°F). And if you are floating on the ocean surface and a deep-sea volcano or vent erupts thousands of meters below, you wouldn’t detect a change in ocean temperatures.

The water in the Arctic Ocean is stratified—layered like a cake—with lighter layers lying atop denser layers of water, like oil atop water. (Colder and/or saltier seawater is denser than warmer and/or less salty seawater.) Waters in the Arctic depths remain trapped near the bottom. They do not mix much with surface waters. Almost no heat is transmitted all the way up to the underside of the ice.

During many Arctic expeditions, scientists have studied the movement of water, heat, and chemicals in the depths of the Arctic Ocean . They have found that heat and other emissions from the Arctic seafloor do not rise much higher than 500 to 1000 meters up from the ocean bottom. The volcanoes under the Arctic sea ice are 3,000 to 4,000 meters (approximately 2.5 miles) below.&lt;/blockquote&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bob,</p>
<p>Here is what the <a href="http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=7545&amp;tid=282&amp;cid=44586&amp;ct=162" rel="nofollow">Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution</a> has to say about whether these undersea volcanoes have any effect on sea ice melt. (You have to scroll to near the bottom of the page to find the quotation.) JR</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>Do explosive volcanic eruptions on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean contribute to the melting of the Arctic ice cap?</strong></p>
<p>No, not at all. The Arctic Ocean is a huge reservoir of water that can readily absorb and disperse the heat and volatile gases from the volcanic eruptions at the seafloor.</p>
<p>To get a sense of how readily and easily the ocean disperses heat from the Earth’s crust, look at underwater volcanoes and hydrothermal vents in other regions of the ocean. At hydrothermal vents, scientists have found mineral-rich fluids with temperatures approaching 400°C (750°F) spewing out of the Earth.  But if you measure temperatures just a few meters above or to the side of a vent, water temperatures return to just 2° to 3°C (35° to 37°F). And if you are floating on the ocean surface and a deep-sea volcano or vent erupts thousands of meters below, you wouldn’t detect a change in ocean temperatures.</p>
<p>The water in the Arctic Ocean is stratified—layered like a cake—with lighter layers lying atop denser layers of water, like oil atop water. (Colder and/or saltier seawater is denser than warmer and/or less salty seawater.) Waters in the Arctic depths remain trapped near the bottom. They do not mix much with surface waters. Almost no heat is transmitted all the way up to the underside of the ice.</p>
<p>During many Arctic expeditions, scientists have studied the movement of water, heat, and chemicals in the depths of the Arctic Ocean . They have found that heat and other emissions from the Arctic seafloor do not rise much higher than 500 to 1000 meters up from the ocean bottom. The volcanoes under the Arctic sea ice are 3,000 to 4,000 meters (approximately 2.5 miles) below.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>By: Bob Janovick</title>
		<link>http://climaticidechronicles.wordpress.com/2008/12/21/2008-arctic-sea-ice-refreeze-trend-line-dropping-below-last-years/#comment-581</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bob Janovick]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:27:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://climaticidechronicles.org/?p=1416#comment-581</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[All of the first year ice seems to confirm what I read on http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.html?id=81bb2fd3-63f1-476f-b0be-f48c0dc90304
that there was a lot of volcanic activity during the summer of &#039;08
This activity is a continuation of that begun in 1999 as seen on
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19826625.800-arctic-ocean-volcano-blew-its-top--even-under-pressure.html
wherein a lot of CO2 was released.
Dosen&#039;t this suggest a lot of &#039;hot&#039; water under the ice?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>All of the first year ice seems to confirm what I read on <a href="http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.html?id=81bb2fd3-63f1-476f-b0be-f48c0dc90304" rel="nofollow">http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.html?id=81bb2fd3-63f1-476f-b0be-f48c0dc90304</a><br />
that there was a lot of volcanic activity during the summer of &#8217;08<br />
This activity is a continuation of that begun in 1999 as seen on<br />
<a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19826625.800-arctic-ocean-volcano-blew-its-top--even-under-pressure.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19826625.800-arctic-ocean-volcano-blew-its-top&#8211;even-under-pressure.html</a><br />
wherein a lot of CO2 was released.<br />
Dosen&#8217;t this suggest a lot of &#8216;hot&#8217; water under the ice?</p>
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